SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 69% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

69%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 50¢leader 69¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$323

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 70% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 70% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 51% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 51% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 44% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 44% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.570¢Both Teams to Score51¢O/U 2.544¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The markets currently assign a 62% probability that the Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC match will have at least 2 goals total (over 1.5), indicating expectations for a moderately high-scoring encounter. This reflects a modest lean toward goals without suggesting a goal-fest scenario — the under 1.5 contract trades at 38%, showing meaningful belief in either a 0-0 draw or single-goal matches. The split pricing across goal-total thresholds (62% for O/U 1.5, 48% for O/U 2.5, 41% for O/U 3.5) suggests gradual uncertainty as goal totals increase. Resolution occurs at match conclusion, likely within the next 1-2 weeks based on typical K-League scheduling. Factors affecting these levels include each team's recent form, typical attacking output, defensive stability, home/away status if applicable, and any injury or personnel changes announced before kickoff.

  • Recent goal-scoring records for both clubs; teams averaging >1.5 goals per match historically lean the market higher, while defensive-oriented teams push it lower
  • Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours indicates minimal new information or market activity, so the 62% price may reflect stale positioning rather than fresh consensus
  • Contrast between spread contracts (Daejeon/Pohang at ~33-34¢ each) and total-goals contracts (clustering 41-62¢) suggests greater certainty about match structure than about winner, pointing to relatively even team strength
  • Match context including home/away designation, whether either team is in a winning or losing streak, and any announced absences due to injury or international duty
  • K-League seasonal phase and typical match volatility; early-season fixtures often differ in scoring patterns from mid-season or playoff periods

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.