Will Ryan Gosling be on The Late Show before 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$93
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Seth Meyers be on The Late Show before 2026
Will Seth Meyers be on The Late Show before 2026?: Seth Meyers
KXDAILYSHOW-26-SET
Cluster 2
Will Ryan Gosling be on The Late Show before 2026
Will Ryan Gosling be on The Late Show before 2026?: Ryan Gosling
KXDAILYSHOW-26-RYA
Cluster 3
Will Pedro Pascal be on The Late Show before 2026
Will Pedro Pascal be on The Late Show before 2026?: Pedro Pascal
KXDAILYSHOW-26-PED
Cluster 4
Will Travis Kelce be on The Late Show before 2026
Will Travis Kelce be on The Late Show before 2026?: Travis Kelce
KXDAILYSHOW-26-TRA
Cluster 5
Will Zendaya be on The Late Show before 2026
Will Zendaya be on The Late Show before 2026?: Zendaya
KXDAILYSHOW-26-ZEN
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Ryan Gosling will appear as a guest on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert before the end of 2026. At 3%, the market assigns this outcome very low probability. The low odds reflect that Gosling makes relatively few talk-show appearances compared to actors in active press cycles, and The Late Show specifically competes with other major platforms for celebrity guests. The probability would increase if Gosling has a major film or project requiring promotion, or decrease if the contract approaches expiration without such an appearance. The contract resolves at year-end 2026, making late-year promotional schedules a key factor. Until then, industry trade announcements about Gosling's upcoming projects serve as the primary indicator of whether appearance conditions might shift.
- ›Gosling's current project pipeline and promotional schedule as of mid-2026
- ›Typical frequency of Gosling talk-show appearances in previous years relative to other A-list actors
- ›The Late Show's booking patterns and access to celebrity guests versus competing late-night programs
- ›Whether major film or TV releases attributed to Gosling are planned for late 2026
- ›Time remaining until contract expiration (approximately 7 months from present date)
What moved the line
- May 6Pedro Pascal↑53pp3→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Seth Meyers↑46pp3→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Seth Meyers↑34pp49→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Zendaya↑33pp4→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Pedro Pascal↑18pp73→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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