Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Leader sits at 10% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Gretchen Whitmer
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 10, 2028
824 days
Venue
Polymarket
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
0xebef00…915a
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Gretchen Whitmer
0xa8ff88…f277
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Stephen A. Smith
0x6231ec…8f32
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Josh Shapiro
0x319590…70f6
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Phil Murphy
0x75aa5e…ba20
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Gina Raimondo
0x0368d5…aa36
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Mark Kelly
0x1825c6…1b18
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock
0xf88877…c722
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Andy Beshear
0x598cdf…8dd1
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Kamala Harris
0x207d8b…b2a0
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Wes Moore
0xaa6a21…d399
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Pete Buttigieg
0x7d8d0a…ba4e
Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x3d08aa…dcf2
Analysis
This 30% probability represents market participants' assessment that a particular Democratic candidate will be nominated as Vice President in 2028. The current leader appears to be a relatively obscure figure, with Ro Khanna showing the highest trading volume at 39 cents. The probability reflects early-stage uncertainty: the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee hasn't been selected, and VP choices typically occur after that decision. Key drivers include the eventual nominee's strategic calculus about geographic balance, ideological positioning, and demographic appeal. The probabilities will likely shift substantially once the Democratic primary concludes and the presidential nominee announces their running mate selection, expected in summer 2028. Currently, low trading volumes suggest limited market conviction across most candidates.
- ›The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee has not yet been determined; VP selection typically occurs only after the nominee is decided, making current VP odds highly speculative.
- ›Ro Khanna (39¢) leads despite representing roughly 4% implied probability, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unrepresentative pricing in a 19-way market.
- ›Total contract volume is modest ($220 in the top contracts over 24 hours), suggesting limited participation and potential for significant repricing with increased activity.
- ›Historical VP selections depend heavily on the eventual presidential nominee's identity and strategic priorities, making current individual candidate odds disconnected from actual decision-making.
- ›The resolution date is approximately 28 months away, providing ample time for political developments, candidate viability changes, and market reassessment.
What moved the line
- May 8Wes Moore↓12pp18→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Pete Buttigieg↓6pp13→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Raphael Warnock↓3pp8→5¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.