Denmark Superliga
Leader sits at 67% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: AGF
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Midtjylland
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Denmark Superliga: Winner
Denmark Superliga: Winner: AGF
0x29852d…cb19
Denmark Superliga: Winner: Midtjylland
0xeffcc3…8578
Analysis
This probability indicates that prediction market participants believe Midtjylland has a 64% chance of winning the 2026 Denmark Superliga season, with AGF at 36%. The market pricing reflects Midtjylland's current standing and recent performance relative to competitors. Key drivers of this probability include each team's league position, goal differential, recent form, and remaining fixture difficulty. The probability will adjust as the season progresses and teams play additional matches; injuries to key players, managerial changes, or significant wins/losses against top rivals would materially shift expectations. The main catalyst remains the accumulation of match results through the remainder of the season, with critical fixtures against other title contenders likely to move the market most significantly. Trading volume remains low ($10 in 24 hours), suggesting limited market liquidity and wider potential bid-ask spreads.
- ›Midtjylland's current league position and points total relative to AGF and other contenders
- ›Goal differential and head-to-head record between Midtjylland and AGF
- ›Remaining strength of schedule and fixture congestion for both teams through season end
- ›Recent form over last 5-10 matches, including wins, draws, and losses
- ›Key player availability, injuries, or suspensions that could affect either team's performance
What moved the line
- May 6Winner: AGF↑25pp36→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Midtjylland↓19pp64→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: AGF↓16pp38→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: AGF↑14pp22→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Winner: AGF↑6pp61→67¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (67% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.