Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Club Bolívar
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Deportivo La Guaira FC
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$314
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar)
0x6baef5…32db
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar
0x866f7d…e26f
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Deportivo La Guaira FC
0xc1b5b2…4113
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Deportivo La Guaira FC will win their match against Club Bolívar, currently priced at 41% across linked prediction contracts. The assessment is driven by team form, home-field advantage, and recent head-to-head records between these Venezuelan and Bolivian clubs respectively. The match outcome itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty—the game's result will either confirm or contradict the current market pricing. Factors like lineup changes, injuries to key players, or weather conditions closer to match day could shift sentiment materially. Trading volume across related markets remains modest, suggesting limited certainty among participants and room for probability adjustment based on new information or updated team news.
- ›Recent league standings and win-loss records for both Deportivo La Guaira and Club Bolívar in their domestic competitions
- ›Head-to-head historical results between these two clubs, if available, and any home-field performance differentials
- ›Injury reports or roster changes for key players announced prior to match day
- ›Weather conditions and any other environmental factors affecting play in the scheduled match location
- ›Liquidity and volume patterns in related prediction markets, indicating confidence levels among traders
What moved the line
- May 7Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar)↑74pp26→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Deportivo La Guaira FC↓53pp53→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Club Bolívar↓26pp26→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Deportivo La Guaira FC↑21pp32→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Club Bolívar↓15pp41→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.