SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 4, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsPolymarketclosed 4 d agoCloses May 21, 2026 · 12d

Deutsche Eishockey Liga

Leader sits at 50% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

50%

Winner: Eisbären Berlin

runner-up 50¢leader 50¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Winner: Adler Mannheim

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 21, 2026

12 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Eisbären Berlin: 49% (5 days, 3 points)Winner: Eisbären Berlin: 49% on 2026-04-28Winner: Adler Mannheim: 50% (5 days, 5 points)Winner: Adler Mannheim: 50% on 2026-05-02
Winner: Eisbären Berlin49¢Winner: Adler Mannheim50¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects equal market pricing between Eisbären Berlin and Adler Mannheim to win the Deutsche Eishockey Liga championship. The 50% allocation suggests both teams are viewed as equally competitive contenders, likely based on recent regular-season performance, playoff positioning, and roster strength. The outcome depends on playoff matchup dynamics, injury status, and head-to-head performance in the knockout rounds. The main catalyst is the progression through the DEL playoff bracket, with elimination games determining which team advances toward the final. Market pricing can shift based on playoff results, trading deadline moves, or roster changes affecting team competitiveness.

  • Current playoff standings and seeding position of both Eisbären Berlin and Adler Mannheim in the DEL playoff bracket
  • Head-to-head win-loss record and recent performance trends between the two teams in the 2025-26 season
  • Roster health status, particularly any injuries to key players or goaltenders that affect playoff readiness
  • Historical playoff performance and championship experience of both organizations in recent seasons
  • Scheduled playoff matchup dates and opponent quality that each team would face in advancing toward the final

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 d ago.