"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 80-90m
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$44K
1 contracts
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 70-80m
"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office: 70-80m
0xa5b00f…58b9
Analysis
This probability estimates a 5% chance that "The Devil Wears Prada 2" will open domestically between $80-90 million. The contract pricing reflects market skepticism about this outcome, with the $70-80m bracket trading significantly higher at 93 cents, suggesting traders expect a lower opening. The sequel's performance depends on brand strength—the original opened to $27.4 million in 2006, adjusted for inflation—against modern box office conditions and competitive releases. Key uncertainties include the final cast confirmation, marketing spend, and the film's positioning against other releases in its opening weekend. The movie's actual opening weekend box office will resolve this contract definitively upon wide release.
- ›The original 'The Devil Wears Prada' (2006) opened to $27.4 million domestically, requiring significant audience expansion or inflation-adjusted growth for an $80-90m opening in 2026
- ›Market pricing shows 70% of volume trading in the $70-80m bracket versus 7% in the $80-90m bracket, indicating trader consensus favors a lower opening
- ›Meryl Streep's confirmed participation and the film's prestige positioning will compete against summer 2026 tentpoles for audience attention and screen count allocation
- ›The film's actual opening weekend box office—measured by studios and reported by box office tracking services—will provide definitive resolution with no interpretation variance
- ›Wide release date confirmation and pre-release marketing campaign intensity will serve as leading indicators in the weeks before opening weekend
What moved the line
- May 370-80m↑4pp89→93¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.