Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -7.5
Leader sits at 95% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -40.0
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above -42.5
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$161
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -22.5?: Above -22.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-22.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -20.0?: Above -20.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-20.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -7.5?: Above -7.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-7.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -10.0?: Above -10.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-10.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -12.5?: Above -12.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-12.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -15.0?: Above -15.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-15.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -17.5?: Above -17.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-17.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -25.0?: Above -25.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-25.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -27.5?: Above -27.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-27.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -30.0?: Above -30.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-30.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -32.5?: Above -32.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-32.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -35.0?: Above -35.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-35.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -37.5?: Above -37.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-37.5
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -40.0?: Above -40.0
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-40.0
Will Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for May 2026 be above -42.5?: Above -42.5
KXDEZEW-26MAY12-T-42.5
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Germany's ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) economic sentiment index will exceed -7.5 when released for May 2026. The ZEW index measures investor and analyst expectations about economic conditions over the next six months, ranging from -100 (all pessimistic) to +100 (all optimistic). Currently trading at 53%, the market suggests slightly better odds than even that sentiment will be above this threshold. The index typically responds to factors like eurozone growth forecasts, inflation expectations, monetary policy signals from the ECB, and geopolitical risks affecting European markets. The May 2026 ZEW data will be released in early June, providing a critical read on how investors assessed economic momentum during a period of potential policy shifts and global economic transitions. Recent readings and competing economic headwinds in Europe will be primary drivers of whether expectations remain below or climb above the -7.5 level.
- ›Historical ZEW readings from late 2025 and early 2026 to establish baseline sentiment trajectory
- ›ECB monetary policy stance and interest rate expectations as of May 2026, which significantly influence forward-looking investor sentiment
- ›Eurozone GDP growth forecasts and actual economic data released in the months leading up to the May survey
- ›Inflation trends in Germany and the broader eurozone relative to ECB targets
- ›Geopolitical developments and energy price movements that could shift risk assessments for European economic outlook
What moved the line
- May 7Above -30.0↑22pp53→75¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above -27.5↑20pp49→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above -25.0↑18pp46→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above -37.5↓11pp97→86¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above -20.0↓8pp61→53¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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