Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.07 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 60% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $0.10
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Below $0.09
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.10 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.10
KXDOGEMINMON-DOGE-26MAY31-010
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.05 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.05
KXDOGEMINMON-DOGE-26MAY31-005
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.06 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.06
KXDOGEMINMON-DOGE-26MAY31-006
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.07 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.07
KXDOGEMINMON-DOGE-26MAY31-007
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.08 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.08
KXDOGEMINMON-DOGE-26MAY31-008
Will DOGE trimmed mean be below $0.09 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $0.09
KXDOGEMINMON-DOGE-26MAY31-009
What moved the line
- May 6Below $0.10↓22pp73→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Below $0.09↓16pp38→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Below $0.10↑13pp60→73¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Below $0.10↑13pp51→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Below $0.08↓12pp18→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.