What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 90% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Testnet
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Acceleration
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$996
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
144 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Testnet
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-TEST
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Traffic
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-TRAF
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Acceleration
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-ACCE
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Treasury
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-TREA
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: M&A / Merger
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-MA
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Fintech
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-FINT
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Kraken
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-KRAK
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Polymarket
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-POLY
What will Circle Internet Group say during their next earnings call?: Intuit
KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRCL-26MAY11-INTU
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 70% probability that Circle Internet Group will mention testnet development during their next earnings call, with traffic-related statements as the second-most likely topic at 51%. This reflects trader expectations about what management priorities Circle will communicate to investors. The high testnet probability likely stems from the company's focus on blockchain infrastructure development, while lower probabilities for acceleration, fintech, and other topics suggest these are viewed as less probable discussion points. Resolution will occur when Circle holds their next scheduled earnings call, at which point listeners can verify whether testnet was actually discussed. The 24-hour trading volume concentrating on the testnet contract ($45 vs. $1-$33 elsewhere) suggests this is the market consensus view of what matters most to Circle's narrative.
- ›Circle's recent product roadmap and development priorities indicate active testnet initiatives, making this discussion likely during earnings
- ›The earnings call is a scheduled event where management typically emphasizes current technical work and infrastructure progress
- ›The gap between testnet (70%) and traffic (51%) shows substantial disagreement about which topic matters second, suggesting uncertainty about management messaging priorities
- ›Trading volume skew toward testnet ($45 in 24h volume) indicates concentrated conviction among traders on this outcome rather than dispersed confidence
- ›Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means only one resolution can occur, creating zero-sum positioning among traders backing competing narrative outcomes
What moved the line
- May 8Acceleration↑84pp4→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Traffic↑29pp22→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Testnet↑20pp50→70¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Treasury↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Fintech↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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