SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 14 outcomes14 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Sep 30, 2026 · 144d8pp · 23h

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 94% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

94%

Testosterone

runner-up 86¢leader 94¢

Outcomes

14

winner-take-all

Runner-up

86¢

FDA

Spread

8pp

contested

24h volume

$3K

modest

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

144 days

Venue

Kalshi

14 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayTestosterone: 59% on 2026-05-07FDA: 55% (2 days, 2 points)FDA: 55% on 2026-05-08Peptide: 82% (2 days, 2 points)Peptide: 82% on 2026-05-08
Testosterone59¢FDA55¢Peptide82¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call

14 contracts$3K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Collaboration

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-COLL

70¢+13pp$711K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: FDA

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-FDA

86¢9pp$412K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Lab Testing

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-LABT

84¢+20pp$397K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Vitamin

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-VITA

50¢$315K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Canada

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-CANA

77¢+4pp$280K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Cancer

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-CANC

32¢$261K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Regulation

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-REGU

41¢$255K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Zava

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-ZAVA

74¢+5pp$250K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Testosterone

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-TEST

94¢$238K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Microdose / Microdosing

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-MICR

16¢$154K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Peptide

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-PEPT

86¢+24pp$77K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Amazon

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-AMAZ

26¢+3pp$26K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-TARI

4¢$20K

What will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Europe

KXEARNINGSMENTIONHIMS-26MAY11-EURO

34¢+2pp$2K

Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' collective assessment that peptide-related commentary will be the dominant topic during Hims & Hers Health's next earnings call, priced at 86 cents. The high confidence in peptide discussion reflects both the company's known focus on GLP-1 agonists and similar weight-loss compounds, as well as investor appetite for exposure to this market segment. Close runners-up on testosterone (83¢) and lab testing (77¢) suggest meaningful uncertainty about which product category receives emphasis. The key driver moving this probability will be management's actual statements during the earnings call itself—the timing of which depends on when Hims & Hers announces their next quarterly results. Secondary factors include recent company announcements about peptide availability, competitive developments in the telehealth weight-loss space, and any regulatory changes affecting these product categories prior to the call.

  • Hims & Hers' peptide/GLP-1 agonist revenue and growth rate relative to other product lines in their most recent reported quarter
  • Competitive activity in telehealth-delivered weight-loss medications during the period preceding the earnings call
  • Recent or pending regulatory actions affecting peptide availability, compounding rules, or telehealth restrictions
  • The company's stated strategic priorities in previous earnings calls and investor communications
  • The specific date and timing of the next scheduled earnings announcement, which determines when resolution occurs

What moved the line

  • May 8Peptide24pp5882¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Lab Testing20pp5979¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Collaboration13pp3245¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8FDA9pp6455¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Zava5pp6671¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.