EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets
Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$43
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x70f119…fce7
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x0b4983…e9f3
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: EC Bahia (-2.5)
0xba4bda…c11d
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)
0x6a82b0…2369
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: EC Bahia (-1.5)
0x8e0c9a…ebb2
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x030ee4…81f8
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x372276…3ab4
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x456a1c…11d4
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)
0x9e8794…ce01
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that both EC Bahia and Cruzeiro EC will score in their upcoming match, currently priced at 55%. The probability reflects expectations about the attacking and defensive capabilities of both teams based on their recent form and historical scoring patterns. Factors driving the current level include each team's recent goal-scoring rate, defensive vulnerabilities, and head-to-head tendencies. The match result itself will resolve this market—if both teams score at least one goal each, the contract settles at $1; otherwise at $0. The low trading volume suggests limited market activity, which can result in wider spreads and potentially less precise probability estimates than heavily traded contracts.
- ›EC Bahia's average goals scored per match over the last 10 games and defensive goals conceded per match
- ›Cruzeiro EC's recent offensive output and defensive performance in comparable fixtures
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two teams in previous meetings
- ›Current injury status or roster changes that could affect either team's attacking or defensive capability
- ›The specific match date and venue, which may influence tactical approach and scoring likelihood
What moved the line
- May 7EC Bahia (-2.5)↓5pp13→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)↓4pp10→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 7EC Bahia (-1.5)↓3pp24→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)↓3pp12→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.