SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets

Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 53¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

53¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

20pp

contested

24h volume

$43

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams to Score: 54% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 54% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 48% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 48% on 2026-05-07O/U 3.5: 26% on 2026-05-06
Both Teams to Score54¢O/U 2.548¢O/U 3.526¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market measures the likelihood that both EC Bahia and Cruzeiro EC will score in their upcoming match, currently priced at 55%. The probability reflects expectations about the attacking and defensive capabilities of both teams based on their recent form and historical scoring patterns. Factors driving the current level include each team's recent goal-scoring rate, defensive vulnerabilities, and head-to-head tendencies. The match result itself will resolve this market—if both teams score at least one goal each, the contract settles at $1; otherwise at $0. The low trading volume suggests limited market activity, which can result in wider spreads and potentially less precise probability estimates than heavily traded contracts.

  • EC Bahia's average goals scored per match over the last 10 games and defensive goals conceded per match
  • Cruzeiro EC's recent offensive output and defensive performance in comparable fixtures
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two teams in previous meetings
  • Current injury status or roster changes that could affect either team's attacking or defensive capability
  • The specific match date and venue, which may influence tactical approach and scoring likelihood

What moved the line

  • May 7EC Bahia (-2.5)5pp138¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)4pp106¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7EC Bahia (-1.5)3pp2421¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)3pp129¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.