Ecuador vs. Curaçao
Leader sits at 74% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ecuador
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao)
Spread
60pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$11K
liquid
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ecuador vs. Curaçao
Analysis
This represents the estimated probability that Ecuador will win a match against Curaçao, based on aggregated trading prices from prediction markets. The high probability reflects expectations that Ecuador, as the stronger team on paper, should advance. The current level would move if Ecuador underperforms in pre-match analysis, if recent injury reports emerge, or if betting patterns shift based on updated team form. The primary driver of certainty will be the match result itself, which determines the outcome. Until the match is played, the probability reflects historical performance metrics, current rankings, and real-time market sentiment from participants placing capital at risk on the outcome.
- ›Ecuador's FIFA ranking and historical head-to-head record against Curaçao relative to market expectations
- ›Polymarket volume concentration: 93¢ Germany contract shows $196 24h volume while Ecuador contracts show $0 24h volume, indicating thin liquidity in Ecuador outcomes
- ›The 81% probability competes against 16% for another outcome, suggesting a two-way market rather than a three-way split
- ›Absence of recent trading activity on direct Ecuador matchups ($0 volume on two Ecuador contracts) implies the 81% figure may reflect older price discovery
- ›Market structure anomaly: contracts labeled 'Germany vs. Curaçao' dominate volume, raising questions about whether these prices correctly reflect Ecuador matchup probabilities
What moved the line
- May 6Curaçao↓6pp14→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ecuador↓5pp81→76¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Ecuador↑4pp77→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao)↑3pp17→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao)↓3pp20→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.