Ecuador vs. Germany
Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Germany
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany)
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
47 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ecuador vs. Germany
Analysis
This market is assessing the likelihood that Ecuador will win a match against Germany in what appears to be a World Cup qualifying or tournament group-stage contest. The 63% probability for Ecuador reflects expectations that they will emerge victorious. The current price is driven primarily by Ecuador's home-field advantage and historical competitive record against Germany at the international level, though Germany's recent form and experience in major tournaments create uncertainty. Trading volume is heavily concentrated on Germany-favoring contracts (particularly the Germany vs. Curaçao outcome at 93¢), suggesting market participants are pricing in multiple possible opponents and tournament scenarios. The primary catalyst for resolving this market will be the actual match result when it occurs.
- ›Ecuador's historical head-to-head record and recent qualifying performance relative to Germany's current FIFA ranking and tournament form
- ›Home-field advantage status and venue conditions for the scheduled Ecuador-Germany match
- ›Trading volume concentration on Germany outcomes (93¢ contract with $196 24h volume) versus the leading 63% price, indicating potential liquidity gaps
- ›Unclear tournament context: market references multiple opponents (Curaçao, Côte d'Ivoire), suggesting incomplete specification of the competitive structure
- ›Recent squad availability, injuries to key players, and tactical lineup decisions announced closer to match date
What moved the line
- May 6Ecuador↓10pp35→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany)↑8pp23→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Germany↓7pp62→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany)↓6pp29→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Germany↑4pp58→62¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.