Barcelona vs Mushuc Runa Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$437
18 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Ind. del Valle vs Barcelona Winner” vs “Guayaquil City vs Cuenca Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Ind. del Valle vs Barcelona Winner
Cluster 2
Guayaquil City vs Cuenca Winner
Cluster 3
Manta vs Macara Winner
Cluster 4
Aucas vs Uni Catolica Winner
Cluster 5
Emelec vs Libertad Loja Winner
Cluster 6
Tecnico Uni vs Delfin Winner
What moved the line
- May 7Guayaquil City↑5pp41→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Tie↑4pp22→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Uni Catolica↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.