SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d7pp · 23h

El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC

Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

46%

El Gouna SC

runner-up 32¢leader 46¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

32¢

Draw (El Gouna SC vs. Kahrab

Spread

14pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayEl Gouna SC: 39% (2 days, 2 points)El Gouna SC: 39% on 2026-05-08Draw (El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC): 29% on 2026-05-07Kahrabaa Ismailia FC: 30% (2 days, 2 points)Kahrabaa Ismailia FC: 30% on 2026-05-08
El Gouna SC39¢Draw (El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC)29¢Kahrabaa Ismailia FC30¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

El Gouna SC is priced at 39% to win this matchup against Kahrabaa Ismailia FC, reflecting a slight advantage but with meaningful uncertainty around the outcome. This probability suggests the market sees El Gouna as favored but not heavily so, with the remaining 61% distributed between a Kahrabaa victory (30%) and a draw (28%). The odds likely reflect recent team form, head-to-head history, and current league standings in Egyptian football. The contract shows minimal trading volume in the last 24 hours, indicating limited recent conviction changes among traders. Resolution will depend on match performance on the scheduled fixture date, with team lineups, injuries, and on-field execution as the primary determinants of whether El Gouna can convert its marginal advantage into a win.

  • El Gouna SC's current league position and recent win/loss record compared to Kahrabaa Ismailia FC
  • Head-to-head historical results between these two teams in recent seasons
  • Presence or absence of key player injuries or suspensions for either team ahead of the match
  • Home vs. away advantage status (whether the match is at El Gouna's or Kahrabaa's stadium)
  • Trading volume and directional movement of contract prices in the 48-72 hours preceding the fixture

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.