Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Leader sits at 7% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
740-759
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
660-679
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026
Analysis
This contract measures whether Elon Musk will post between 1,280 and 1,319 tweets during May 2026. The market currently assigns an 8% probability to this outcome, with lower tweet-count ranges (760–839 per month) showing stronger probability. Musk's historical posting frequency and recent behavioral patterns anchor expectations around 780–840 tweets monthly, making the 1,280+ range an outlier scenario. The probability hinges on whether an unexpected surge in platform activity, crisis response, or change in posting habits would occur. Resolution depends on final May tweet counts from public records when June begins. Market consensus clusters around moderate activity levels rather than exceptional volume, suggesting traders view a significant uptick as unlikely within the 30-day window.
- ›Historical baseline: Musk's typical monthly tweet volume over the past 12 months relative to the 1,280–1,319 range being measured
- ›Concentration of probability mass: 60%+ of market probability allocated to the 760–839 range suggests traders expect relatively stable, moderate posting frequency
- ›Trading volume disparity: Lower tweet-count contracts (780–799) showing $1,274 in 24-hour volume versus higher ranges indicates stronger conviction in baseline scenarios
- ›Event-driven catalysts: Scheduled major announcements, product launches, or significant news cycles during May that could trigger unusual posting activity
- ›Market disagreement level: The 14-contract spread and runner-up at 7% probability reflects modest consensus, indicating genuine uncertainty about tail scenarios
What moved the line
- May 2740-759↓12pp14→2¢ · Polymarket
- May 2660-679↑4pp1→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6740-759↑3pp3→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.