Will Jason Segel win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Martin Short win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Martin Short win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Martin Short
KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-MAR
Cluster 2
Will Jason Segel win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Jason Segel win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jason Segel
KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-JAS
Cluster 3
Will Steve Martin win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Steve Martin win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Steve Martin
KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-STE
Cluster 4
Will Steve Carell win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Steve Carell win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Steve Carell
KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-STEV
Cluster 5
Will Ethan Hawke win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Ethan Hawke win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Ethan Hawke
KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-ETH
Cluster 6
Will Tie win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jason Segel will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series. At 14%, the market views him as a moderate long-shot candidate. Emmy outcomes depend heavily on the strength of competing performances in a given year, voting patterns within the Television Academy, and which shows gain momentum during awards season. The primary uncertainty surrounds which actors will receive nominations and how voters will rank them relative to Segel's work. The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 will resolve this question completely. Leading up to that event, critics' awards, guild nominations, and industry sentiment will provide signals about which performances are gaining traction with voters. Contract pricing shows some disagreement on Segel's chances compared to other comedy actor candidates, suggesting meaningful uncertainty in the race.
- ›Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series category typically features 5-6 nominees, with Segel's nomination status itself uncertain as of May 2026
- ›Voting within the Television Academy can shift significantly based on recognition of the performance, show popularity, and campaigning by studios and networks
- ›Competing performances by other actors and the relative critical reception of comedy series will directly influence Segel's position relative to other candidates
- ›Prior Academy voting patterns show preferences can change year-to-year based on which shows dominate the cultural conversation during awards season
- ›Emmy nominations are typically announced in July 2026, serving as the first major data point clarifying whether Segel is even in contention
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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