Will Sterling K. Brown win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Noah Wyle win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Noah Wyle win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Noah Wyle
KXEMMYDACTO-26SEP14-NOA
Cluster 2
Will Sterling K. Brown win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Sterling K. Brown win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Sterling K. Brown
KXEMMYDACTO-26SEP14-STE
Cluster 3
Will Tie win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Drama Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYDACTO-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This market reflects a 29% probability that Sterling K. Brown will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. The estimate incorporates his track record as a multiple Emmy nominee and recent television work, balanced against competition from established actors in the category. The probability would move significantly based on which dramas receive major network/critical support heading into Emmy voting season, and whether Brown lands a prominent role in a high-profile limited series or drama that airs before voting closes. The Emmy Awards ceremony is typically held in September, with voting ballots distributed to Academy members in advance. The main catalyst will be the official Emmy nominations announcement, which determines the final competitive field and typically occurs in July.
- ›Sterling K. Brown's nomination history and past Emmy performance in similar categories
- ›The strength and visibility of competing actors' 2025-2026 television roles and critical reception
- ›Which networks submit their drama series and lead actors for Emmy consideration and promotional push
- ›The timing and prominence of any new Brown television work released between now and July nomination announcement
- ›Total voter participation rates and category competitiveness in the Supporting Actor in Drama race
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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