Will The Beast in Me win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$253
8 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will beef win limited series at the emmy awards
Will Beef win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: Beef
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-BEE
Cluster 2
will love story win limited series at the emmy awards
Will Love Story win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: Love Story
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-LOV
Cluster 3
will the beast in me win limited series at the emmy awards
Will The Beast in Me win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Beast in Me
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-BEA
Cluster 4
will all her fault win limited series at the emmy awards
Will All Her Fault win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: All Her Fault
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-ALL
Cluster 5
will half man win limited series at the emmy awards
Will Half Man win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: Half Man
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-HAL
Cluster 6
will death by lightning win limited series at the emmy awards
Will Death by Lightning win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: Death by Lightning
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-DEA
Cluster 7
will lord of the flies win limited series at the emmy awards
Will Lord of the Flies win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: Lord of the Flies
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-LOR
Cluster 8
will dtf st. louis win limited series at the emmy awards
Will DTF St. Louis win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards?: DTF St. Louis
KXEMMYLSERIES-26SEP14-DTF
Analysis
The Beast in Me has a 17% chance of winning the Limited Series category at the Emmy Awards, based on current market pricing. This probability reflects expectations about the show's critical reception, voter preferences, and competition from other nominated series in this category. The odds would likely move higher if the show gains momentum through industry awards earlier in the season (such as Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards), or lower if competing series generate stronger critical consensus. The Emmy Awards typically take place in September, which represents the key resolution point for this market. Voter sentiment often crystallizes in the months leading up to the ceremony, influenced by screening campaigns, press coverage, and performance at precursor awards.
- ›Limited Series Emmy voting comprises roughly 12,000 industry voters whose preferences shift based on critical reviews and award-season momentum
- ›The show's performance at precursor ceremonies (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice) historically correlates with Emmy voting patterns
- ›Competition intensity in Limited Series varies year to year; a concentrated field of strong contenders would suppress any single show's probability
- ›Voter fatigue or turnout changes in 2026 could meaningfully impact the size and composition of the Emmy electorate
- ›The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 represents the definitive resolution date for this market
What moved the line
- May 7Beef↓14pp35→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Love Story↑11pp19→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lord of the Flies↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Death by Lightning↑5pp1→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.