SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Sep 2, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·closed just now·Closes Sep 14, 2027 · 378d

Will The Beast in Me win Limited Series at the Emmy Awards

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

20%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

20%

5 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

5 contracts

Closes

Sep 14, 2027

378 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 46% (9 days, 9 points)Aggregate: 46% on 2026-08-31
Aggregate of 5 contracts · 9d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 5 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

will beef win limited series at the emmy awards

1 contract$2K

Cluster 2

will the beast in me win limited series at the emmy awards

1 contract$384

Cluster 3

will dtf st. louis win limited series at the emmy awards

1 contract$75

Cluster 4

will all her fault win limited series at the emmy awards

1 contract$12

Cluster 5

will love story win limited series at the emmy awards

1 contract$0

Analysis

The Beast in Me has a 21% implied probability of winning the Limited Series Emmy Award. This probability reflects market expectations based on the show's critical reception, industry buzz, and competition from other nominees. The main factors driving this level are the strength of competing shows like Beef and DTF St. Louis, which command higher probabilities, and voting patterns among Emmy voters who typically favor established prestige dramas. The probability could shift significantly based on recent Emmy voter registration data, critic award outcomes in the months leading up to the ceremony, and any shifts in industry momentum. The Emmy Awards ceremony in late 2026 will provide the definitive resolution. Until then, market participants are weighing The Beast in Me's chances against a crowded field of limited series contenders.

  • Competing shows Beef (47¢) and DTF St. Louis (48¢) command substantially higher market probabilities, suggesting voters may view them as stronger contenders
  • Trading volume on The Beast in Me contract is zero over the last 24 hours, indicating limited market engagement or conviction around this particular show
  • The probability of 21% positions The Beast in Me as a credible but not favored nominee, similar to mid-tier contestants in a competitive category
  • Emmy voter sentiment typically correlates with earlier awards recognition such as Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and guild nominations
  • The limited series category features multiple strong contenders at varying probability levels, distributing expected value across the field

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.