English Premier League - Most Clean Sheets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
5%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
English Premier League - Most Clean Sheets: Gianluigi Donnarumma
English Premier League - Most Clean Sheets: Gianluigi Donnarumma
0x7cef2d…f4ef
Analysis
This market tracks which Premier League club will record the fewest goals conceded during the 2025-26 season. The 86% probability assigned to the leading outcome reflects strong confidence in a specific team's defensive capability based on current betting activity across multiple platforms. Market prices show Arsenal favored at 61-63% to win the league overall, while Man City trails at 39%, suggesting defensive strength may correlate with title contention. The gap between the clean sheets leader (86%) and runner-up (14%) indicates concentrated confidence rather than uncertainty. Key drivers include recent defensive performance data, injury status of key defenders, and tactical consistency. The season's final match day (May 2027) will definitively resolve the outcome by comparing total clean sheets across all clubs.
- ›Arsenal and Man City combined hold 100% of Premier League winner contracts, suggesting the clean sheets leader is one of these two clubs
- ›Arsenal's higher league-winner probability (61-63% vs Man City's 39%) may reflect superior defensive metrics entering 2025-26
- ›Clean sheets correlate with both defensive quality and team performance; a surprise mid-season injury to key defenders could shift probabilities
- ›Current 86%-14% split is more extreme than the 63%-39% division in league winner markets, suggesting the clean sheets market has stronger conviction or different information
- ›Season completion on May 2027 allows 12 months of performance data; significant tactical changes or managerial shifts mid-season would be primary catalysts
What moved the line
- May 6Gianluigi Donnarumma↓30pp32→2¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Gianluigi Donnarumma↓13pp46→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.