Epstein client list released by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Epstein client list released by
Epstein client list released by...?: June 30
0xa08bf5…d21e
Analysis
This contract estimates a 32% probability that the Epstein client list will be released by June 30, 2026. The contract reflects ongoing legal proceedings and public pressure for disclosure of names associated with Jeffrey Epstein, balanced against continued legal barriers and sealed documents. The wide 12-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (37%) and Polymarket (25%) suggests disagreement about timing and the likelihood of judicial action within this six-week window. Resolution hinges on court decisions, appeals, or legislative action rather than on a predetermined date. The low trading volume ($623 in 24 hours) indicates limited market participation, which typically reflects either low event salience or high uncertainty about near-term triggers.
- ›A federal judge must rule favorably on disclosure requests or an appeal must succeed within the next 28 days for this probability to materialize
- ›Recent sealed Epstein documents have faced ongoing legal challenges; the track record of successful unsealing attempts in the past 12 months would indicate momentum toward release
- ›Congressional or state legislative action could force disclosure, but no scheduled votes or legislative deadlines align with the June 30 resolution date
- ›The 12-percentage-point discrepancy between major venues suggests market participants weight the likelihood of judicial action differently, possibly due to different interpretations of recent court filings
- ›Low trading volume ($623/day) indicates this resolution date may be viewed as unlikely, with market interest concentrated on longer-dated or broader release scenarios
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.