Will Panathinaikos BC win the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 6 contracts. Kalshi at 15%, Polymarket at 23% — a 8pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
1 contract
Polymarket
23%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
8pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$502
6 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 15¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 8pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (15¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “2026 Euroleague: Winner” vs “Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
2026 Euroleague: Winner
2026 Euroleague: Winner: Panathinaikos
0xe69e92…054a
2026 Euroleague: Winner: Fenerbahçe Beko
0xc1b3e2…4ec5
2026 Euroleague: Winner: Valencia Basket
0x8271a3…b5b8
2026 Euroleague: Winner: Olympiacos
0x2a8cf1…8081
2026 Euroleague: Winner: Real Madrid
0x4bd92a…4c0e
Cluster 2
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship?: Real Madrid
KXEUROLEAGUE-26-RMA
Analysis
This represents a 19% probability that Panathinaikos BC wins the 2025-26 EuroLeague Championship, the top European professional basketball competition. The probability reflects typical long-shot odds for a team competing in a league with 18 teams, where consistent championship contention requires sustained roster quality and performance. Panathinaikos would need to finish as a top seed in regular season play, then advance through multiple playoff rounds against established contenders. Key drivers of this probability include the team's current roster composition relative to competitors, recent season performance trends, and whether significant roster changes occurred in the offseason. The championship will be decided when the EuroLeague Finals conclude, likely in June 2026, with the regular season and playoff outcomes providing incremental clarity on Panathinaikos's trajectory throughout the 2025-26 campaign.
- ›Panathinaikos's regular season win-loss record compared to historical performance and competing EuroLeague teams
- ›Roster changes made during the 2025 offseason, particularly acquisitions or departures of key players
- ›Head-to-head performance against traditional championship contenders during the regular season
- ›Panathinaikos's injury record and bench depth availability entering critical playoff stages
- ›EuroLeague playoff seeding and draw positioning, which determines matchup difficulty in knockout rounds
What moved the line
- May 2Winner: Olympiacos↓13pp40→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Panathinaikos↑10pp18→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Panathinaikos↓9pp27→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Fenerbahçe Beko↑8pp14→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Winner: Real Madrid↑6pp16→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.