Will Southampton win the FA Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
2 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Manchester City win the FA Cup
Will Manchester City win the FA Cup?: Manchester City
KXFACUP-26-MCI
Cluster 2
Will Chelsea win the FA Cup
Will Chelsea win the FA Cup?: Chelsea
KXFACUP-26-CHE
Analysis
This probability represents the chances Southampton will win the FA Cup in the 2025-26 season. The 14% aggregate estimate reflects Southampton's mid-table or lower-league standing and the difficulty any team faces in winning a knockout competition with dozens of competitors. The 21-percentage-point gap between venues (Polymarket at 32% vs. Kalshi at 11%) suggests uncertainty about Southampton's current form, recent transfers, or injury status. Key drivers include Southampton's league position, squad depth relative to Premier League rivals, and their historical cup performance. The probability will adjust substantially based on injury announcements before the cup draws, managerial changes, and Southampton's results in upcoming league matches that signal team trajectory.
- ›Southampton's league position and recent form relative to historical cup competitors
- ›Squad depth and injury status compared to top-tier rivals typically favored in FA Cup betting markets
- ›Significant 21-point valuation gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests inconsistent assessments of either Southampton's capability or market-specific factors
- ›Historical precedent for non-top-flight teams or mid-table clubs winning the FA Cup in recent seasons
- ›Upcoming fixture results and any transfer activity before major cup rounds that could indicate momentum shifts
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.