FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)
Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$494
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
0xeace31…0b5c
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x3f4aee…054d
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x370751…ca9a
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59499b…4dcd
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x55c4f8…292a
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)
0x19e3cd…8204
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2d1ff3…fa68
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)
0x91f635…61e3
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)
0xbe0413…65c7
Analysis
This market reflects a 32% probability that FC Machida Zelvia will win by more than 2.5 goals against Yokohama F·Marinos. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect either a close result or a Yokohama victory. J-League 2 matchups typically feature moderate scoring, with defensive capability and recent form being primary drivers of goal-margin outcomes. The market would shift higher if Machida demonstrates strong attacking efficiency or Yokohama's defense shows vulnerabilities; it would move lower if Yokohama's attacking prowess or Machida's defensive inconsistency becomes evident. The match result itself will serve as the definitive catalyst resolving all uncertainty around this specific spread.
- ›Recent goal-scoring patterns and defensive records for both FC Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F·Marinos in J-League 2 fixtures
- ›Head-to-head historical results and goal margins between these two clubs
- ›Team lineup availability, injuries to key attacking or defensive players, and tactical adjustments
- ›Home/away status and venue performance trends, as goal margins often vary significantly based on location
- ›Current league standings and momentum, as teams competing for promotion or avoiding relegation typically exhibit different offensive and defensive intensities
What moved the line
- May 6Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)↓31pp37→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓29pp34→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)↓29pp37→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)↓22pp35→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓21pp52→31¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.