SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 1 d agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 0d

FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)

Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 51¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

51¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

22pp

contested

24h volume

$494

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 61% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 61% on 2026-05-06Both Teams to Score: 31% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 31% on 2026-05-06O/U 2.5: 33% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 33% on 2026-05-06
O/U 1.561¢Both Teams to Score31¢O/U 2.533¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 32% probability that FC Machida Zelvia will win by more than 2.5 goals against Yokohama F·Marinos. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect either a close result or a Yokohama victory. J-League 2 matchups typically feature moderate scoring, with defensive capability and recent form being primary drivers of goal-margin outcomes. The market would shift higher if Machida demonstrates strong attacking efficiency or Yokohama's defense shows vulnerabilities; it would move lower if Yokohama's attacking prowess or Machida's defensive inconsistency becomes evident. The match result itself will serve as the definitive catalyst resolving all uncertainty around this specific spread.

  • Recent goal-scoring patterns and defensive records for both FC Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F·Marinos in J-League 2 fixtures
  • Head-to-head historical results and goal margins between these two clubs
  • Team lineup availability, injuries to key attacking or defensive players, and tactical adjustments
  • Home/away status and venue performance trends, as goal margins often vary significantly based on location
  • Current league standings and momentum, as teams competing for promotion or avoiding relegation typically exhibit different offensive and defensive intensities

What moved the line

  • May 6Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)31pp376¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6O/U 4.529pp345¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)29pp378¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)22pp3513¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Both Teams to Score21pp5231¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.