FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Urawa Red Diamonds
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs.
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds
0x34a9af…ce2e
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Mito Holly Hock
0xb8c640…b0ea
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds)
0x6f6875…6bc7
Analysis
The 43% probability for Urawa Red Diamonds indicates traders view them as the most likely winner in this matchup against FC Mito Holly Hock, though outcomes remain fairly competitive with a 29% draw probability and 28% for FC Mito Holly Hock. Urawa Red Diamonds' higher rating likely reflects their league standing, recent form, or head-to-head historical advantage. The market is relatively balanced given the three-way nature of soccer outcomes—no single result is heavily favored. The match result will fully resolve the contracts, with all probability mass shifting to the winning outcome once the game concludes. Key factors affecting these prices include recent team performance metrics, injury status, home/away advantage, and comparative squad strength in the J-League context.
- ›Urawa Red Diamonds' current league position and recent win-loss record versus FC Mito Holly Hock's recent performance
- ›Home/away status: whether this match is at a neutral venue, Urawa's Saitama Stadium, or FC Mito Holly Hock's home ground
- ›Head-to-head historical results and goal differential in prior meetings between these two teams
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either squad ahead of the scheduled match
- ›Overall squad strength comparison and season trajectory for both teams in the current J-League season
What moved the line
- May 7FC Mito Holly Hock↓12pp42→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Urawa Red Diamonds↓8pp49→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds)↓3pp32→29¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.