FC Spartak Trnava vs. MŠK Žilina - More Markets: FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5)
Leader sits at 33% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
FC Spartak Trnava (-2.5)
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Spartak Trnava vs. MŠK Žilina - More Markets: FC Spartak Trnava
Analysis
This market reflects a 33% probability that FC Spartak Trnava will defeat MŠK Žilina by a margin greater than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests bookmakers and traders view Žilina as the favored team or expect a closer contest. Key drivers of this probability include each team's current form, head-to-head history, home/away status, and player availability. The market will resolve when the match concludes and the final score is recorded, at which point the outcome becomes certain based on whether Trnava's margin of victory exceeds 1.5 goals.
- ›Current league standings and recent form of both FC Spartak Trnava and MŠK Žilina (wins/losses in last 5-10 matches)
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these teams in recent seasons, including goal differential patterns
- ›Home or away designation for FC Spartak Trnava in this fixture, as it significantly impacts goal-scoring probability
- ›Injury reports or roster changes for key players on either squad that would affect expected output
- ›The match date and time relative to the current date (2026-05-04) to assess how imminent the resolution event is
What moved the line
- May 7FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5)↑3pp27→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (33% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.