FC Twente '65 vs. Sparta Rotterdam
Leader sits at 72% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Twente '65
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Draw (FC Twente '65 vs. Spar
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$332
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Twente '65 vs. Sparta Rotterdam
Analysis
This market reflects a 17% probability that the match between FC Twente '65 and Sparta Rotterdam ends in a draw, with Sparta Rotterdam given a 12% chance to win outright. The relatively low draw probability suggests traders expect a decisive result, though limited trading volume ($0 in 24-hour activity) indicates thin liquidity and wider uncertainty bands. The key drivers for this pricing are recent form, goal-scoring patterns, and defensive stability of both teams heading into match day. The match outcome itself will resolve all uncertainty, making the final whistle the only meaningful catalyst. Current pricing may reflect recent head-to-head history or league standings, but very low trading activity means prices could shift meaningfully with even modest new information or betting flow from other markets.
- ›24-hour trading volume is $0, indicating minimal market activity and potentially unreliable price discovery
- ›Draw probability at 17% compared to Sparta Rotterdam win at 12% suggests market expects higher-scoring or lopsided outcomes
- ›No third outcome explicitly shown for FC Twente '65 to win, which would clarify the full implied probability distribution
- ›Match outcome is the single binary catalyst that fully resolves the contract
- ›Recent form and head-to-head record between these teams would be primary factors supporting or contradicting current 17% draw estimate
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.