SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 6, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketclosed 3 d agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 0d

FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming

Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

52%

FC Universitario

runner-up 25¢leader 52¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

25¢

Club Blooming

Spread

27pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 5, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayFC Universitario: 49% (3 days, 3 points)FC Universitario: 49% on 2026-05-03Club Blooming: 26% (3 days, 3 points)Club Blooming: 26% on 2026-05-03Draw (FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming): 25% (3 days, 3 points)Draw (FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming): 25% on 2026-05-03
FC Universitario49¢Club Blooming26¢Draw (FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming)25¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 84% probability indicates the leading market participants believe FC Universitario is heavily favored to win against Club Blooming. The high confidence likely reflects Universitario's recent form, head-to-head record, or home advantage if applicable. Key drivers of this probability include team composition changes, recent injuries, and comparative league standings. The match itself will serve as the primary resolution event—scheduled performance data, goal-scoring trends, and defensive records in the weeks leading up to kickoff will be the main factors determining whether this probability holds or shifts. Low trading volume on related contracts suggests limited liquidity and potential for repricing if new information emerges about either squad's fitness or tactical preparation.

  • FC Universitario's current league position and recent match results versus Club Blooming's recent performance metrics
  • Availability of key players for both teams, particularly strikers and defensive starters, in the days before match day
  • Head-to-head historical record between these clubs and goal-scoring patterns in previous encounters
  • Home/away venue impact if Universitario has a home advantage, supported by historical conversion data at that stadium
  • Recent weather or pitch condition reports that typically favor one squad's playing style over the other

What moved the line

  • May 3Draw (FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming)3pp2825¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.