FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets
Leader sits at 87% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: FC Universitario (-2.5)
0x012ef0…d4b4
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xaa517a…8799
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x03594c…e6cd
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: Club Blooming (-1.5)
0x56997f…947a
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x0c5253…bc4c
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: FC Universitario (-1.5)
0xcbd635…d67f
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xff0eb9…84a9
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x76f121…46e0
FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: Club Blooming (-2.5)
0xa2184b…a349
Analysis
The 63% probability indicates market participants assess FC Universitario as the favorite to win this matchup against Club Blooming, though the outcome remains uncertain. This lean toward Universitario reflects typical home-field advantages and relative team strength in South American football, factors that traders weigh when pricing winner-take-all contracts. The lack of trading volume across contracts suggests limited market interest or recent settlement. Key drivers of probability movement would include team injuries, recent performance streaks, or head-to-head historical records between these clubs. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result determines which contract settles to $1.00 and others to zero.
- ›FC Universitario priced as favorite at 63% versus Club Blooming at 16%, with 21% allocated to draw/other outcomes
- ›Zero 24-hour volume across all three contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity or market conviction shifts
- ›Spread contracts show Universitario at -2.5 and -1.5, with under 2.5 goals at 68¢ suggesting expectation of defensive or low-scoring match
- ›Contract pricing lacks arbitrage across platforms beyond Polymarket, limiting evidence of efficient price discovery
- ›Match outcome depends on team lineups, weather conditions, and tactical matchups on game day
What moved the line
- May 3Club Blooming (-2.5)↑7pp11→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Club Blooming (-1.5)↑5pp17→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 3.5↓4pp34→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 1.5↑4pp77→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓3pp66→63¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.