SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 5, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 4 d agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 0d

FC Universitario vs. Club Blooming - More Markets: FC Universitario (-2.5)

Leader sits at 87% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

87%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 68¢leader 87¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

68¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 5, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 84% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 84% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 69% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 69% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 63% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 63% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.584¢O/U 2.569¢Both Teams to Score63¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 24% probability that FC Universitario will win their match against Club Blooming by more than 2.5 goals. The low probability suggests market participants expect either a close contest or a Blooming victory. The current price is driven primarily by limited trading volume and historical performance data between these teams. The resolution depends entirely on the final match outcome, which will be determined when FC Universitario and Club Blooming play their scheduled fixture. Key drivers include team form, head-to-head records, and whether either side has recent injuries or lineup changes that affect scoring potential.

  • The market has recorded zero trading volume in the past 24 hours, indicating minimal recent price discovery or information flow
  • The related Club Blooming (-1.5) contract trades at 16 cents, suggesting markets view Blooming as competitive or favored in a closer match
  • The Over 3.5 goals contract trades at 31 cents while Over 2.5 trades at 68 cents, indicating markets expect total goals between 2-3
  • Historical win margins between these teams and current season goal-scoring rates would determine whether a 2.5+ goal margin is typical
  • The specific match date and kickoff time determine when this resolves; team roster availability and weather conditions closer to fixture day could shift expectations

What moved the line

  • May 3Club Blooming (-2.5)7pp1118¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Club Blooming (-1.5)5pp1722¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3O/U 3.54pp3430¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 1.54pp7781¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Both Teams to Score3pp6663¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 d ago.