Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This market contracts track the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will substantially alter its standard communication practices before year-end 2026. The "Dot Plot Omitted" contract—currently the highest-priced outcome at 65%—reflects market expectations that the Summary of Economic Projections may exclude individual participants' federal-funds-rate forecasts. The leading indicator is market uncertainty about potential Federal Reserve operational changes in response to political or economic pressures. The probability would rise if there are signals of structural policy changes or leadership transitions; it would fall if the Fed signals continuity in its communication framework. The primary resolution catalyst is the Fed's regular policy meetings and economic projections releases scheduled throughout the remainder of 2026, particularly any announced changes to post-meeting communication protocols or the December meeting outcome.

• ›The "Dot Plot Omitted" contract trades at 65¢ versus "Forward Guidance Removed" at only 49¢, suggesting market participants view omitting rate projections as more likely than removing forward guidance entirely
• ›The "Presser Skipped" contract at 60¢ indicates moderate probability of a cancelled post-meeting press conference, which could signal related communication changes
• ›Extreme low prices on "Reserve President Removed" (5¢) and "Reserve President Rejected" (6¢) suggest minimal market expectation of personnel disruptions that might trigger broader operational changes
• ›The 7-month timeframe to resolution (through December 2026) spans multiple regularly scheduled FOMC meetings where communication structure could be modified
• ›Kalshi volume remains relatively light across all contracts ($652–$2730 per contract in 24 hours), suggesting limited consensus and high model dependence

What moved the line

• Jun 18Presser Skipped↑11pp26→37¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Presser Skipped↑11pp46→57¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Reserve President Rejected↓9pp12→3¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Presser Skipped↑8pp38→46¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Dot Plot Omitted↑7pp34→41¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in economy

• US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
• Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
• South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
• What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
• Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds