2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Leader sits at 16% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Spain
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$6.3M
liquid
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
42 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Winner
World Cup Winner : Norway
0x7b5240…325c
World Cup Winner : Portugal
0x4f3421…9fe8
World Cup Winner : Netherlands
0x9be563…eba1
World Cup Winner : Germany
0x1595b4…1d16
World Cup Winner : England
0x375409…fb1f
World Cup Winner : France
0x9b6fef…b894
World Cup Winner : Spain
0x7976b8…2892
World Cup Winner : Argentina
0x0c4cd2…457f
Analysis
This 20% probability represents the combined market estimate that France will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The estimate reflects strong recent performance by France and a relatively balanced competitive field among top contenders. Market pricing is driven primarily by squad strength and historical tournament performance; the probability would shift based on pre-tournament injury announcements, major roster changes, or qualification/friendly match results. The tournament itself begins in mid-June 2026, and any significant squad disruptions or form changes in the months leading up to qualification completion will likely move prices substantially. Early-stage friendly matches and confederation playoffs occurring through May-June 2026 will provide concrete data on current team strength.
- ›France won the 2022 World Cup and reached the final in 2018, providing documented recent success that supports elevated market valuation compared to longer-shot competitors
- ›Polymarket contracts price France at 17¢ while Kalshi averages 35¢ across 5 contracts, indicating significant disagreement between venues that reflects genuine uncertainty in valuation methodology or risk appetite differences
- ›Brazil, Spain, England, and Portugal collectively represent 44¢ in Polymarket pricing, suggesting the market views the tournament as genuinely competitive with no dominant favorite
- ›24-hour trading volumes exceed $190,000 on each top contract, indicating sufficient liquidity and market confidence in pricing rather than illiquid outlier valuations
- ›France squad composition and injury status through May 2026 represents a concrete, observable factor; any retirement announcements from key players or major injuries would directly resolve current uncertainty
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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