FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Dinamo Makhachkala - More Markets: FK Akron Tolyatti (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
50%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$882
5 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Analysis
This probability reflects an even 50-50 assessment of whether FK Akron Tolyatti will win by more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match against FK Dinamo Makhachkala. The probability sits at parity, suggesting market participants see comparable offensive and defensive capabilities between the teams, or uncertainty about squad availability and form going into the fixture. Resolution depends on the actual match result, which will occur on the scheduled game date. The main drivers of movement would be any team news affecting squad depth, recent performance trends in the Russian football league, and historical head-to-head records between these clubs. Whether either side experiences injuries to key players or a shift in recent form could push the probability meaningfully in either direction.
- ›Current league standings and goal differential for both clubs in the 2025-26 season
- ›Historical head-to-head records and typical goal margins in previous matchups
- ›Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for each team, including goals scored and conceded
- ›Confirmed squad availability, injuries to key players, or suspension status as of match day
- ›Home/away venue advantage, as fixture location affects goal-scoring patterns and defensive solidity
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.