FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Krasnodar - More Markets: FK Akron Tolyatti (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
44%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$906
7 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Cluster 6
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf8c905…86be
Cluster 7
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC (-1.5)
0xea81e1…2c80
Analysis
This market prices the probability that FK Akron Tolyatti will win by 2 or more goals against FK Krasnodar at 39%. The relatively modest probability reflects that Akron is being given a handicap of 1.5 goals—a substantial margin in soccer—suggesting market participants expect a competitive match. The main drivers of this probability are recent form and head-to-head performance between the teams, along with any lineup or injury information available. The market will resolve on the match result, scheduled for May 3, 2026. Shifts in this probability would likely follow team news, betting activity on related markets, or lineup announcements closer to kickoff.
- ›Akron's win probability at -1.5 goals implies approximately a 39% chance they defeat Krasnodar by a 2-goal margin or more
- ›Recent performance records of both teams in the current season, including goal differential and defensive consistency, directly influence whether such a large margin is realistic
- ›Injury status and lineup decisions for both sides, particularly among key attacking and defensive players, can materially shift the probability
- ›Head-to-head historical results between these specific clubs provide a baseline for expected competitive balance
- ›The -1.5 handicap itself indicates market consensus that Akron is favored but not overwhelmingly so; a 39% fill price suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether they can cover
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp40→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Punjab FC (-1.5)↓3pp37→34¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.