FK Jablonec vs. FC Slovan Liberec - More Markets: FC Slovan Liberec (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
50%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$882
5 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Analysis
This market reflects a 50% probability that FC Slovan Liberec will win by more than 1.5 goals against FK Jablonec in an upcoming fixture. The even split suggests comparable strength between the teams or uncertainty about their current form and head-to-head dynamics. Markets at this probability level typically indicate balanced trading interest, with liquidity appearing modest based on the aggregated contract volumes shown. Movement away from 50% would likely follow recent team performance data, injury reports, or betting line shifts from traditional sportsbooks. The outcome will be determined once the match concludes and final goals are tallied. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and accurate official scoring.
- ›Current market probability sits at exact parity (50%), indicating traders view both outcomes as roughly equivalent rather than favoring either team decisively
- ›The listed top contracts show broader Chinese and Japanese league matches with higher volumes, suggesting limited trading activity specifically on this Jablonec vs. Liberec matchup
- ›Slovan Liberec must win by at least 2 goals for the (-1.5) outcome to resolve affirmatively, a higher margin threshold than a simple win
- ›No recent injury reports, current league standings, or head-to-head records are reflected in the provided data, leaving form assessment incomplete
- ›Match resolution requires official confirmation of final score once the fixture is played on its scheduled date
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.