FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 75% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Randy Fine
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Dan Bilzerian
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
101 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
What moved the line
- May 7Randy Fine↓5pp75→70¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Dan Bilzerian↑3pp23→26¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.