FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 41% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jared Moskowitz
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Oliver Adams Larkin
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$105
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
101 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner represents the probability that a particular candidate will secure the Democratic nomination for Florida's 23rd congressional district seat. At 45%, this reflects meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome, suggesting competitive dynamics between leading candidates. The current probability is influenced by candidate fundraising levels, polling data among likely Democratic primary voters, and organizational capacity in the district. The resolution will depend primarily on the primary election date and vote totals, which determines the Democratic nominee who advances to the general election. Key drivers of probability movements would include campaign finance reports showing funding disparities, internal or public polling releases indicating shifts in voter preference, and endorsements from prominent party figures or organizations that could consolidate support.
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and spending rate compared to primary opponents, as reported in Federal Election Commission disclosures
- ›Polling among likely Democratic primary voters in FL-23, including sample size, margin of error, and recency of survey data
- ›Voter registration trends and turnout patterns in the district's Democratic primary in recent election cycles
- ›Endorsements from established party figures, sitting officials, or organizational endorsements (labor unions, environmental groups) that demonstrate establishment support
- ›Primary election date and institutional factors such as ballot access requirements or early voting periods that affect candidate visibility
What moved the line
- May 3Jared Moskowitz↑15pp26→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Oliver Adams Larkin↓13pp41→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Oliver Adams Larkin↑11pp28→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Jared Moskowitz↑8pp18→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Oliver Adams Larkin↓6pp39→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (41% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.