Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

The 83% probability indicates strong market confidence that a particular candidate will win the Florida Democratic Senate primary. The current price reflects an assessment of that candidate's likelihood of victory based on polling, fundraising, and organizational strength relative to other competitors in the race. Movements in this probability would primarily reflect changes in public polling data, campaign developments, or candidate endorsements. The main uncertainty driver is the timing and results of primary elections themselves—when voters cast ballots, the market will resolve to certainty. Near-term catalysts include candidate debate performances, monthly fundraising disclosures, and any significant polling shifts. The wide gap between the current leader at 83% and the runner-up at 6% suggests market participants view the race as relatively settled, though primary elections remain inherently unpredictable events where late shifts can occur.

• ›Public polling showing relative candidate support levels and trend direction in recent weeks
• ›Campaign finance reports demonstrating fundraising capacity and spending relative to primary opponents
• ›Organizational infrastructure metrics including field staff, volunteer activity, and ballot access status
• ›Endorsement patterns from party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in Florida
• ›Recent debate performance assessments and media coverage sentiment toward leading candidates

What moved the line

• May 2Alexander Vindman↓10pp84→74¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Alexander Vindman↑9pp74→83¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Alexander Vindman↑5pp83→88¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
• Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
• What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds