SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória - More Markets

Leader sits at 72% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

72%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 47¢leader 72¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

47¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

25pp

contested

24h volume

$283

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 73% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 73% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 47% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 47% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 45% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 45% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.573¢O/U 2.547¢Both Teams to Score45¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that both Fluminense FC and EC Vitória will score in their upcoming match. At 44%, the market estimates this outcome slightly favors the alternative (either team not scoring or one team shutting out the other). The likelihood depends on recent offensive and defensive form from both teams, including injury status and lineup availability. Weather conditions and the match venue may also influence scoring patterns. The primary uncertainty resolves when the match concludes; the specific date of play determines when this question settles.

  • Fluminense FC's recent goal-scoring rate per match over the last 5-10 games compared to EC Vitória's defensive record
  • EC Vitória's offensive output and conversion efficiency against Fluminense FC's recent defensive performance (clean sheets, goals conceded)
  • Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these teams, particularly whether their matchups tend toward high or low-scoring outcomes
  • Confirmed squad availability and injuries for both teams, especially starting strikers and defensive key players
  • Match venue and weather forecast on game day, as conditions can influence both teams' ability to execute offensive plays

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.