Will Arthur Fils win the French Open
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$45K
4 contracts
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
60 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open
Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open?: Jannik Sinner
KXFOMEN-26-SIN
Cluster 2
Will Novak Djokovic win the French Open
Will Novak Djokovic win the French Open?: Novak Djokovic
KXFOMEN-26-DJO
Cluster 3
Will Alexander Zverev win the French Open
Will Alexander Zverev win the French Open?: Alexander Zverev
KXFOMEN-26-ZVE
Cluster 4
Will Arthur Fils win the French Open
Will Arthur Fils win the French Open?: Arthur Fils
KXFOMEN-26-FIL
Analysis
Arthur Fils is assigned a 24% probability of winning the 2026 French Open, derived from predictions across two markets. The market shows significant disagreement, with Kalshi traders pricing his chances at 25% while Polymarket prices them at 4%, suggesting uncertainty about his tournament prospects. Near-term, Fils faces Etcheverry in the Round of 16 (currently favored at 74%), making immediate performance the primary driver of probability movement. Broader factors include his form relative to top-ranked competitors like Jannik Sinner, who carries a 66% win probability in parallel markets. The tournament's progression through the round-of-16 match will provide concrete data on Fils' performance level. His path to the final and consistency against elite opponents will be critical to whether his probability rises or falls in subsequent rounds.
- ›Fils is currently favored to beat Etcheverry (74% implied probability), but must advance through multiple rounds to reach the final
- ›Sinner's 66% win probability on parallel markets suggests at least one strong competitor ahead of Fils in overall tournament odds
- ›Kalshi traders price Fils 21 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants, indicating disagreement about his competitive level
- ›Trading volume concentrates on the Etcheverry matchup rather than the outright tournament winner, suggesting more confidence in near-term prediction than full-tournament outcome
- ›Djokovic and other contenders carry single-digit probabilities, indicating a concentrated field where elite players dominate tournament odds
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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