Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
8 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win the Eredivisie
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win the Eredivisie?: Feyenoord Rotterdam
KXEREDIVISIE-26-FEY
Analysis
This represents the market's expectation that Fortuna Sittard will beat Feyenoord Rotterdam in their upcoming match. The 38% probability reflects Feyenoord's status as the stronger team, with a 64-63% win probability priced on various contracts, while Sittard is valued at 14-36% depending on the venue. The probability is driven by the teams' recent form, standings position in the Eredivisie, and head-to-head historical performance. A 4 percentage point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests modest disagreement on Feyenoord's edge. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty, determining whether Sittard pulls an upset or Feyenoord wins as expected. Factors like injuries, weather, and tactical setup closer to kickoff could shift odds meaningfully, though current pricing appears relatively stable given the low trading volume on direct match outcome contracts.
- ›Feyenoord is priced roughly 2:1 favorite over Sittard across venues, indicating meaningful quality gap between the teams
- ›Direct match-outcome contracts show higher liquidity and tighter pricing on Polymarket (64¢) versus Kalshi (63¢), suggesting similar market sentiment with thin spread
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume on most Sittard-Feyenoord contracts ($2-$15) indicates sparse liquidity and potential for wider swings if large orders arrive
- ›The 4 percentage point cross-venue gap (40% vs 36%) is modest relative to the binary outcome, suggesting no major informational asymmetry between platforms
- ›Exact match date and teams' current Eredivisie standings would determine whether 38% reflects baseline expectation or situational factors (injuries, fixture congestion, relegation/European pressure)
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 d ago.