France vs. Iraq
Leader sits at 83% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Draw (France vs. Iraq)
Spread
71pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
44 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
France vs. Iraq
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment of which team will win in a matchup between France and Iraq, with France currently priced at 82% likelihood of victory. The high probability reflects France's stronger historical performance, superior ranking in international competitions, and deeper player pool compared to Iraq. Key factors that would shift this probability include recent form (injuries to star players, consecutive losses), head-to-head records, home/away advantage if applicable, and Iraq's recent improvements in team cohesion or tactical organization. The resolution depends on the actual match result when it occurs; any official postponement, cancellation, or rule changes regarding eligible players could also impact the outcome. Market pricing remains thin on some contracts, suggesting limited trading activity and potential for repricing as the match date approaches.
- ›France's historical competitive ranking and player quality relative to Iraq's squad depth and experience at this level of competition
- ›Recent form and injury status of key players on both teams in the weeks leading up to the match
- ›Head-to-head records and tactical patterns from previous encounters between these nations
- ›Home field advantage and crowd factors if the match location favors one team
- ›Any changes to team rosters, coaching staff, or competition format announced closer to the event date
What moved the line
- May 6France↓3pp82→79¢ · Polymarket
- May 7France↑3pp79→82¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.