France vs. Senegal
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Draw (France vs. Senegal)
Spread
51pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$63
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
38 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
France vs. Senegal
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that France will win an upcoming match against Senegal. The 35% probability for France is notably lower than historical head-to-head records might suggest, indicating markets are pricing in specific circumstances—possibly Senegal's recent form, home-field advantage, or France fielding a non-primary squad. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, with France's win probability likely to shift based on team lineups, injury updates, and any pre-match betting movement closer to kickoff. The 3-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement on France's winning chances, though both markets converge around 32-35%.
- ›France's historical dominance in head-to-head matchups with Senegal versus current market pricing below 40%, suggesting specific contextual factors driving lower expectations
- ›Senegal's recent form and any home-field advantage if the match is played in Africa, which would mechanically reduce France's win probability
- ›Team lineup composition—whether France fields a full-strength squad or rotates players, directly affecting match outcome probability
- ›Betting volume concentration on France contracts (68¢ polymarket, $301 volume) versus Senegal (12¢ polymarket, $13 volume) showing asymmetric confidence in the France outcome
- ›The 3pp divergence between venues suggesting incomplete price discovery or different trader assessments of underlying match conditions
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.