Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%
Leader sits at 97% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.7%
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above 1.8%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$44
thin orderbook
Closes
May 29, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.7%?: Above 2.7%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.7
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.8
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.6
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.4
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.3%?: Above 2.3%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.3
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.2
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.1%?: Above 2.1%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.1
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T2.0
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T1.9
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T1.8
Will France inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026 be above 1.7%?: Above 1.7%
KXFRCPIPREL-26JUN12-T1.7
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 97% probability that France's preliminary consumer price inflation for April 2026 will exceed 1.9% year-over-year. The high probability reflects confidence that inflation has not fallen below this threshold, likely driven by elevated energy costs, wage pressures, or sticky service-sector inflation across the eurozone. The main downside risk would be if deflationary pressures from energy markets or weak demand pushed actual inflation materially lower. The resolution depends on the official INSEE (French statistical agency) inflation data release, which typically occurs in early May for the prior month's preliminary estimate. Key factors include recent energy price movements, wage negotiation outcomes in France, eurozone-wide monetary policy effects, and comparative inflation trends across EU member states.
- ›Energy commodity prices in May 2026, as oil and gas costs directly affect headline inflation
- ›Recent wage agreements and labor cost trends in French services and manufacturing sectors
- ›Eurozone-wide ECB policy stance and its transmission effects on French price pressures
- ›Actual INSEE preliminary inflation reading when released, which will definitively resolve the contract
- ›Comparative inflation data from neighboring eurozone economies that share similar demand and supply dynamics
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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