Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9M
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.2–1.5M
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
0.9–1.2M
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$35
thin orderbook
Closes
May 26, 2026
17 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.2–1.5M
0x19e84f…e6e3
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.9–1.2M
0xd9a6f0…a567
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: <0.6M
0x65f354…298b
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.5–1.8M
0xe140cf…c2ee
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9M
0xadc9b1…55d0
Analysis
This contract asks whether total votes in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff will fall between 600,000 and 900,000. At 7% probability, the market is pricing this outcome as unlikely. Texas primary runoff turnout depends on candidate enthusiasm and whether the race remains competitive through election day. The margin-of-victory contracts show active pricing around Paxton's performance, suggesting ongoing uncertainty about the race's competitiveness. The key driver is whether turnout matches or exceeds typical runoff participation rates in statewide Texas Republican primaries. The resolution will occur on the scheduled runoff election date when official vote totals are reported by the Texas Secretary of State.
- ›Historical Texas Republican runoff turnout rates and how 2026 compares to prior cycles like 2012, 2016, and 2022
- ›Candidate spending and ground-game intensity heading into the runoff, which directly affects voter mobilization
- ›Weather and external events on election day that could suppress or boost participation
- ›Polling showing the margin of victory, since competitive close races typically drive higher turnout than blowouts
- ›Early voting participation rates reported in the weeks before the runoff election
What moved the line
- May 31.5–1.8M↑14pp18→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 61.5–1.8M↓14pp32→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 70.6–0.9M↑7pp12→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 31.2–1.5M↓6pp39→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 61.2–1.5M↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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