Texas Senate Runoff Nears Certainty: Paxton Favored
Ken Paxton’s probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff hit 100¢, up 4¢, while John Cornyn dropped to 0¢. Over 800k volume across these two markets reflects intense last‑minute hedging.
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Key takeaways
- 01
Ken Paxton’s probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff hit 100¢, up 4¢, while John Cornyn dropped to 0¢.
- 02
Over 800k volume across these two markets reflects intense last‑minute hedging.
- 03
The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is dominating prediction market volume.
Full analysis
The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is dominating prediction market volume. On Polymarket, “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner: Ken Paxton” (0x99a0f...) hit 100¢, up 4¢, with 388k volume. The opposite contract for John Cornyn (0x781a0...) fell 4¢ to 0¢ on 421k volume. Kalshi also hosts margin‑of‑victory markets, e.g., “Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton… be 9%+” (KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV) at 99¢. The runoff is effectively a formality now, but the margin could signal future general election competitiveness. Other high‑volume primary markets include California governor (KXGOVCA) and Los Angeles mayor (KXMAYORLA). Traders should monitor the final vote counts tomorrow (May 27) for any polling‑place surprises. The house control market (CONTROLH) remains fluid: Democrats at 76¢, Republicans at 23¢. The Texas outcome may reset some expectations for national midterms. Recommended action: sf book KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV
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