Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
14%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
0x176e84…f436
Analysis
The prediction reflects a 16% likelihood that Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026. Merz has held the position since early 2025 following federal elections, and this probability incorporates the political stability of the current coalition government against potential instabilities. The main factors driving the current level are the structural stability of Germany's governing coalition and the relative absence of immediate political crises that would force an early government collapse or Merz's removal. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include major coalition disagreements on fiscal or foreign policy, a significant electoral loss in upcoming state elections, or unexpected political scandals. The risk assessment reflects that while early chancellorial departures are uncommon in stable democracies, the current German political environment contains typical coalition pressures that occasionally force leadership changes.
- ›The stability of the current coalition government, which would need to fracture or withdraw support before Merz could be forced out
- ›Historical precedent in German politics showing chancellors typically serve full terms absent major crises or electoral defeats
- ›Upcoming state elections scheduled throughout 2026, whose results could destabilize the coalition if they show significant shifts in voter preferences
- ›Economic performance and fiscal policy disputes within the coalition, particularly regarding spending limits or EU-related decisions
- ›The absence of credible reports or structural indicators suggesting imminent government collapse as of May 2026
What moved the line
- May 3Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?↓3pp18→15¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.