Will Futu Holdings Limited report above 3550 thousand total funded accounts in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 86% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3550 thousand
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
56¢
Above 3600 thousand
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$663
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
30 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Futu Holdings Limited report above 3
Will Futu Holdings Limited report above 3600 thousand total funded accounts in Q1 2026?: Above 3600 thousand
KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3600000
Will Futu Holdings Limited report above 3650 thousand total funded accounts in Q1 2026?: Above 3650 thousand
KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3650000
Will Futu Holdings Limited report Above 3625 thousand total funded accounts in Q1 2026?: Above 3625 thousand
KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-3625000
Will Futu Holdings Limited report above 3700 thousand total funded accounts in Q1 2026?: Above 3700 thousand
KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3700000
Will Futu Holdings Limited report above 3550 thousand total funded accounts in Q1 2026?: Above 3550 thousand
KXFUTU-26MAYFUNDED-P3550000
Analysis
This prediction reflects market belief that Futu Holdings will report at least 3.55 million total funded accounts when it releases Q1 2026 results. The 92% probability indicates high confidence in this outcome, suggesting traders expect modest growth from prior periods. Market pricing across the range (7% for 3.65M accounts, 92% for 3.55M, 95% for 3.50M) shows tight clustering near the 3.5–3.6M range, reflecting uncertainty about whether growth will be robust or incremental. The main drivers are Futu's user acquisition pace, retention rates among existing customers, and macroeconomic conditions affecting retail trading activity in Asian markets. Resolution occurs when Futu releases official Q1 2026 earnings results, typically in April or May, providing the actual funded account count that determines which contracts settle in-the-money.
- ›Historical account growth trajectory: Futu's quarterly account additions in 2025 establish the baseline for projecting whether 3.55M is conservative or optimistic
- ›Competitive pressure in retail trading: Market share shifts among Asian fintech platforms directly affect new account sign-ups and churn rates
- ›Macroeconomic volatility in China and Asia: Trading volume and investor participation fluctuate with equity market conditions and regulatory changes
- ›Timing and completeness of earnings disclosure: Futu must explicitly report total funded accounts in their official filings; ambiguous or delayed reporting could complicate settlement
- ›Account definition consistency: Market relies on Futu's specific definition of 'funded accounts,' which could shift between reporting periods
What moved the line
- May 21Above 3550 thousand↑34pp58→92¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Above 3650 thousand↓17pp27→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Above 3700 thousand↓16pp20→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Above 3600 thousand↑10pp45→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above 3550 thousand↓5pp92→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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