GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 84% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jasmine Clark
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Everton Blair Jr.
Spread
73pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$95
thin orderbook
Closes
May 19, 2026
10 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 43% probability reflects market expectations that a particular candidate will win Georgia's 13th congressional district Democratic primary. This reflects uncertainty about candidate strength, voter preferences, and turnout patterns in the district. The probability would move higher if early polling shows a frontrunner consolidating support, or lower if multiple competitive candidates dilute the vote or if endorsements shift the race dynamics. The primary election date and any scheduled debates or candidate forums will be key moments that could shift market sentiment as voters gain more information about the candidates' positions and viability.
- ›Primary election date and voter registration data for GA-13 showing whether turnout expectations have changed
- ›Recent polling or internal survey results from the district indicating whether the leading candidate maintains or loses support relative to competitors
- ›Endorsements from established Democratic figures or organizations that could signal candidate viability and fundraising capacity
- ›Campaign finance reports showing which candidates have raised funds and whether any have dropped out or suspended operations
- ›Demographic and historical primary turnout patterns in GA-13 compared to recent special election or general election participation rates
What moved the line
- May 7Jasmine Clark↑3pp81→84¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Everton Blair Jr.↓3pp16→13¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.